So last year didn't quite go to plan. Elvis getting completely shut out went against my wager that they would clean up in the technical awards, and Everything Everywhere All at Once's absolute dominance put a crimp in my strategy to play up the Academy's sometimes-penchant for upsets (hello, Glenn Close). But it's a new year and a new award's race, so let's turn the leaf.
Every year, a plethora of award shows lead up to the Academy Awards, but only a few can be considered actual prognosticators. Voting bodies that make up the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have little (if any) overlap with the Academy; however, the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) and the various guilds, especially the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, tend to make up a significant portion of Academy voters in their respective categories.
Undoubtedly, the big winner this award season has been Oppenheimer, and while Christopher Nolan's latest is certainly the safe bet going into the big night, don't discount the Academy's desire to stand out (and how much VFX artists aren't feeling Nolan at the moment).
Good luck on those Oscar pools, and be sure to tune in on March 10 for Hollywood's biggest night!
Best Picture
Nominees:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer or The Zone of Interest
The love for Oppenheimer has been widespread across critics groups, other awarding bodies and audiences at large (save for VFX artists, but more on that later). It's won the equivalent Best Picture award at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and, most importantly, the SAG Awards.
The only picture that could give it a run for its money is Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest — and, although last year I was willing to go against the sure favourite (and notwithstanding that I was very wrong), Oppenheimer is everything the Academy wants in a film and I'm all in with Nolan.
As for who should win, our fearless Editor-in-Chief has been riding for The Zone of Interest since he saw it at TIFF last year, and while I think Oppenheimer is the most technically proficient film made in 2024, The Zone of Interest contains one of the most unique and compelling ways to tell the story of the Holocaust we've ever seen. Either of these films can be easily argued as the best of the year for good, albeit very different, reasons.
Directing
Nominees:
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
While he's made some of Hollywood's most prolific films of the last 20 years, Nolan hasn't seen a lot of love from the Academy over his career. Oppenheimer, though, seems to be the project that voters can't deny. Through every aspect of filmmaking, we see Nolan at the top of his game with the added benefit of an extremely well told story that gets to the heart of his characters, something he's often been criticized for lacking in the past. I generally dislike the narrative of someone being "overdue" for an award, but it's Nolan's time.
Lead Actress
Nominees:
Annette Bening, NYAD
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Who Should Win: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Personally, my favourite performance of the year belongs to Emma Stone, who finds her legs and discovers her vagina with great delight in Poor Things. However, Lily Gladstone's inevitable win will be historic and, for the record, incredibly deserved. As Mollie Burkhart, Gladstone brought to life the complexities of a community's situation in a visceral and heartaching performance. Killers of the Flower Moon gave Gladstone a platform to show off her talents, which many Kelly Reichardt fans have been well aware of since 2016's Certain Women, and the addition of Oscar to her mantle will be welcome in more ways than one.
Lead Actor
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
For anyone who likes to take the dark horse, Paul Giamatti's your man. An actor who's been a strong player in the industry since the ‘90s, the "overdue" narrative applies to him as well, and his performance in The Holdovers is undeniably more than deserving of a win.
However, Cillian Murphy's character study of Robert J. Oppenheimer remains the one to beat, having won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG awards. There's been a general outpouring of love towards his performance, and although this shouldn't technically matter, he's an actor who has consistently been spoken highly of throughout his career by fellow actors and directors. I've been a massive fan of Murphy's for a long while now, and it'd be absolutely fitting for him to win his first Academy Award in a Nolan collaboration.
Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
It's getting a little repetitive isn't it? (And we're only at the fifth category.) Similar to Murphy, Robert Downey Jr. has cleaned up the Best Supporting Actor category at the preceding major award shows and comes with a banging narrative to boot. A certifiable It Guy of the ‘90s, which included his first Academy nomination for Chaplin in 1993, his career suffered a setback that same decade due to addiction issues he has thankfully overcome. Iron Man marked his return to the good graces of the industry and the movie-going public, and Oppenheimer cements his talents beyond a shadow of a doubt. He doesn't need the Oscar to secure his place in Hollywood, but it'll be the cherry on top of a triumphant return.
Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, NYAD
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Who Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Who Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Da'Vine Joy Randolph has been running away with this category, and there's no reason to believe she won't continue this trend come Sunday night. Randolph's steadfast performance in The Holdovers was the heartwarming and earnest turn we needed in a year filled with doom and gloom — and, not to diminish the performances of the other nominees, but in this particular category, the race hasn't been close.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: American Fiction
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
The Writer's Guild of America is holding its awards show in April, so we don't have a strong prevailing wind to follow for the screenplay awards. However, it's safe to say that it's a tight-race between American Fiction (Cord Jefferson's adaptation of Percival Everett's Erasure) and Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan's adaptation of Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin's American Prometheus). American Fiction picked up the award at the BAFTAs, and although Oppenheimer has been gobbling up best picture, acting and directing awards like candy, its screenplay hasn't been a clear frontrunner. American Fiction made waves after its TIFF 2024 premiere, and I think it'll edge Oppenheimer for its only statue of the night.
Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Who Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Who Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall
It's not easy to make legal proceedings sound exciting, but Justine Triet and Arthur Harari's script has received universal praise for capturing the tense and often ambiguous nature of trials, where memories are tested and emotions are manipulated. Anatomy of a Fall was one of the most celebrated films made outside of Hollywood last year, and this will be the category that recognizes this sentiment.
Score
Nominees:
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
Ludwig Göransson's score overwhelms Oppenheimer in all the right ways and is arguably the magnum opus of his career to date. Göransson has picked up a slew of awards already, including the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and the Society of Composers & Lyricists Award, and all signs point to him going home with the golden statue come Sunday.
Original Song
Nominees:
"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie
Who Will Win: "What Was I Made For?" Barbie
Who Should Win: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie
This is a tough category to predict: will the Academy go silly? Or will they stay with the film of the silly song and go for its more "legitimate" entry? My money's on the Academy officially having no sense of humour, but they'll really enjoy Ryan Gosling's performance.
Cinematography
Nominees:
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
The Oppenheimer train keeps on rolling. Hoyte van Hoytema has been Nolan's chosen cinematographer since Interstellar, and was nominated for this award for his work on Dunkirk. Van Hoytema has a stunning portfolio of work and, just as with Nolan, Murphy and Downey, Oppenheimer should deliver him his long-awaited first Academy Award.
International Feature
Nominees:
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
I'm not saying that if France had submitted Anatomy of a Fall instead of The Taste of Things they would have definitely won Best International Feature. What I am saying, though, is that, given the Best Picture, Directing, Lead Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing nominations, Anatomy of a Fall (and France) would have at least secured a nomination in this category and would have been neck-in-neck with the runaway favourite The Zone of Interest. Très triste.
Animated Feature
Nominees:
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Should Win: Robot Dreams
Lord and Miller's animated Spider-Verse films have set new standards for the art form, and it's the odds-on favourite to take home the animation award again (Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won in 2019). My hypothetical vote, though, goes towards Pablo Berger's Robot Dreams, a non-verbal Spanish-French production about the friendship between a robot and dog. A simple premise that will deliver gut punches and reflection, Robot Dreams hasn't yet received a theatrical release date in Canada, but bring tissues when it does.
Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Who Should Win: To Kill a Tiger
Perhaps I'm a little biased towards the Canadian-produced To Kill a Tiger, but the power of Nisha Pahuja's film knows no bounds. Following a family advocating for justice after their daughter was raped, To Kill a Tiger highlights the legal, societal and cultural challenges in India, and, most importantly, the love of a family.
Costume Design
Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Barbie
Who Should Win: Poor Things
It's a tight contest between Jacqueline Durran (Barbie) and Holly Waddington (Poor Things), as both were recognized at the Costume Designers Guild Awards, with Durran winning Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film and Waddington for Excellence in Period Film. Although Waddington edged out Durran at the BAFTAs, there's a decidedly Hollywood attitude to the Barbie aesthetic, and I think the Academy will lean more towards the fantastic rendering of life in plastic.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Who Will Win: Maestro
Who Should Win: Poor Things
My initial inclination was to select Poor Things as the winner for the grotesquely awesome prosthetic work done on Willem Dafoe's God. But Maestro picked up two of the three awards it was nominated for at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards, and, given that it lost out to Barbie in the third category (which is surprisingly missing from this category), there seems to be a clear path for an Academy win for Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell.
Editing
Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
The American Cinema Editors' ACE Eddie Awards were held this past weekend and both Jennifer Lame (Oppenheimer) and Kevin Tent (The Holdovers) went home with hardware for Best Edited Feature Film in the separated drama and comedy categories, respectively. As is the way with the Academy, drama tends to supersede comedy, and so, while it's getting pretty boring now, Oppenheimer feels like the winner here as well.
Visual Effects
Nominees:
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Who Will Win: The Creator
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer (write-in)
The Creator may have received a lukewarm response upon its release, but the visuals have been universally praised, including winning big at the Visual Effects Society Awards. (Look to Godzilla Minus One as the dark horse upset, though.)
But here's the more important story: it's hard to ignore that Oppenheimer wasn't nominated (or even short-listed) by the Academy's visual effects voting group. In his career, Christopher Nolan has been a huge advocate for films being made with less reliance on computers and more practical effects. It's an honourable hill to stand on, spoiled slightly by his claims that Oppenheimer was made without any CGI assistance — a statement the VFX community took to be as a slight on their contributions to film. It's fair to say that Nolan has created some enemies in the field, and they've let their ballots do the talking.
Sound
Nominees:
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Oppenheimer unsurprisingly picked up the two feature film awards for dialogue/ADR and effects/foley at the Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards; rather unexpectedly, however, the MPSE awarded Society of the Snow for Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing - Feature Foreign Language over The Zone of Interest. No other film last year used sound as effectively as The Zone of Interest and, barring a welcomed upset, it's a shame Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn haven't received the recognition they deserve from industry awards.
Production Design
Nominees:
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Barbie
Who Should Win: Napoleon
Barbie and Poor Things continue their micro-competition for below-the-line awards. Both films have memorable set dec and both are integral to their films, but Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer's cinematic imagining of Barbieland and Ken's Mojo Dojo House are iconic. Given the nostalgia factor at play, I can see the Academy sending their votes to Barbie for this one.
Live Action Short
Nominees:
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who Should Win: Red, White and Blue
Let's be real: the Academy tends to vote based on familiarity when it comes to short films, and what's more familiar than the pastel twee-ness of Wes Anderson?
Animated Short
Nominees:
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Who Will Win: Letter to a Pig
Who Should Win: Letter to a Pig
I'll quickly negate my familiarity comment above to place beautiful imagery over Beatles fame. Letter to a Pig is an absolutely stunning piece of work that amazes both visually and narratively and will surely (read: hopefully) override any warm feelings voters may have for John Lennon.
Documentary Short
Nominees:
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Who Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Who Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
It'll come down to The ABCs of Book Banning and The Last Repair Shop in this category, with the topical nature of ABCs working in its favour. That being said, the heartstrings could be pulled enough that The Last Repair Shop strikes a nerve with voters.
