Oscar Predictions 2023: Who Will Win (and Who Should) at the Academy Awards

BY Rachel HoPublished Mar 9, 2023

At long last, award season is coming to a close with the 95th Academy Awards being held this coming Sunday (March 12). Jimmy Kimmel is set to host for the third time and will hopefully usher in a much tamer show than last year.

This year, fan favourite (and Exclaim!'s top movie of 2022) Everything Everywhere All At Once leads the pack with 11 nominations, including Best Picture, Director, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress (times two!). On its heels is the (super) dark comedy The Banshees of Inisherin and WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front with nine noms a piece. There are some sure bets this year, but some categories are so tight, a coin flip would do just as commendable a job as the best prognosticator out there.

As Oscar pool picks are being finalized, here are my predictions for this year's top prize in cinema with some dark horse picks included for the risk-adverse among us.

Best Picture

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking


Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

So here's the thing with this category, unlike the others, this one is voted on by every single Academy voter and as much work has been done to encourage diversity, there are still enough voters of a certain vintage that can sway a sure thing. Everything Everywhere All At Once is the obvious favourite here, but given how unconventional this movie is and that a ranked ballot is used, it isn't a clear cut victory. The safe bet is with EEAAO (and for the record, I really do hope it wins), but I'm going to go out on a limb and say Banshees is coming out of nowhere as the just-weird-enough-for-the-Academy upset. Feck yeah, let's get nuts.

Directing

Nominees:
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, TÁR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Up until the DGA Awards, I was not entirely unconvinced that Steven Spielberg was going to take this award out of legacy (not to say his work on The Fabelmans isn't deserving; he is Spielberg after all). But after the Directors Guild voted for a Daniels win, I think it's safe to say, they're leading the pack.

Lead Actor

Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

A very tough category to predict with Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser being neck-in-neck the entire awards season. Brendan Fraser has an incredible comeback story that the Academy loves, but they also love recognizing performances in biopics of extraordinary icons — and who's more extraordinary or iconic than Elvis? 

Lead Actress

Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana de Armas, Blonde 
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

If there's one category I want to be wrong about, it's this one. Similar to Lead Actor, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh have been splitting the awards and either are good contenders. The people's choice has been Michelle Yeoh, but it's hard to shake the tremendous love the Academy has for Cate Blanchett. 

Supporting Actor

Nominees:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

With the exception of the BAFTAs, Ke Huy Quan has pretty much made a clean sweep of this award and I can't wait to see all the selfies he's going to take with Oscar at the after parties.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: 
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Should Win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

There's been a lot of support for Jamie Lee Curtis (who picked up the all-important SAG award) and Kerry Condon (who won the BAFTA), but I think the prevailing wind is still coming from Wakanda. Come Oscar night, I'm betting on Angela Basset doing the thing.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Women Talking has been surprisingly quiet this award season, and the lack of recognition hasn't gone unnoticed. Following her win at the WGA Awards, I think Sarah Polley will go on to nab her first Academy Award, with All Quiet on the Western Front being its main competition.

Original Screenplay

Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness


Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin or Everything Everywhere All at Once

It's a real toss up between Banshees and EEAAO. Martin McDonagh's trademark dark banter is a favourite among voters, but DANIELS' recent win at the WGA Awards gives them the slight edge.

Score

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans


Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon

It's very early on in their careers but old schoolmates Damien Chazelle and Justin Hurwitz are proving to be an incredible duo. Like in many categories, All Quiet on the Western Front serves as the upset with Volker Bertelmann's gnarly riff being dynamically devastating and motivating. 

Original Song

Nominees:
"Applause," Tell It Like a Woman 
"Hold My Hand," Top Gun: Maverick
"Naatu Naatu," RRR
"Lift Me Up," Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"This Is A Life," Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: "Naatu Naatu," RRR
Should Win:  "Naatu Naatu," RRR

Despite RRR being one of the most talked about movies last year, it only came away with one nomination (in large part because India opted not to submit the film as its nomination). It's the performance we're all waiting for and it's been cleaning up this category at most of the major award shows.

Animated Feature

Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red


Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

If there is one sure win at this year's Academy Awards it's Guillermo del Toro winning for his very adult interpretation of the Pinocchio story. The film has won this category at all of the major award shows, including the Annie Awards, and it's hard to believe it won't do the same come Oscar night.

Documentary Feature

Nominees:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny


Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: Fire of Love

Well produced and extremely topical at the moment, Navalny is the sure fire favourite, especially after its PGA and BAFTA wins. For my money, though, Fire of Love achieved an incredible feat in archival restoration and opened the world up to the quirky world of volcanologists.

International Film

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

The only film in this category to be nominated in the Best Picture category as well, All Quiet on the Western Front is the top contender to win this category. The one film that could spoil the party for Edward Berger is Argentina, 1985

Animated Short

Nominees:
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It


Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, The Horse and The Fox
Should Win: The Flying Soldier

Maybe my "should win" shows a bit of a Canadian bias, but it's a gorgeous film telling the devastating story of the Halifax Explosion that's not to miss (and can be seen for free on the National Film Board's website!). But after its four wins at the Annies, The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse is still the one to beat.

Documentary Short

Nominees:
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate


Will Win: Stranger at the Gate
Should Win: The Elephant Whisperers

While The Elephant Whisperers has been the favourite for the majority of awards season with its incredible nature shots of an elephant sanctuary in India, the Academy has shown a penchant for human interest stories for this category in the past. Stranger at the Gate fits the bill, has the momentum and added Malala Yousafzai as an executive producer at the end of January, who has been making the rounds in recent weeks.

Live Action Short

Nominees:
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase


Will Win: An Irish Goodbye
Should Win: Le Pupille 

My least scientific prediction by far: I'm going with An Irish Goodbye mostly because the Academy seems to love Ireland this year. Personally, Le Pupille is a nice reprieve from the heavier fare in this category and that'd be a nice change of pace.

Cinematography

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
TÁR


Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

One of the weaker categories at this year's Oscars, All Quiet on the Western Front seems like the run away favourite, especially after its incredible night at the BAFTAs. While I don't foresee the WWI doing quite as well on this side of the pond, the light competition makes this pick an easy one.

Costume Design

Nominees:
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris


Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Babylon

Bringing to life the King across three decades required a particular sartorial eye and Catherine Martin absolutely nailed it. No other movie has done as good of a job campaigning for the below the line categories as Elvis and I think it's going to pay off.

Film Editing

Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick


Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

It's silly not to pick EEAAO for editing of all categories, right? Blending the many (many) multi-verses together to be coherent and aesthetically pleasing was quite the feat — but I'll put it out there that the spicy, dark horse pick is Elvis

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: 
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale


Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: The Batman

A strong category this year, the prosthetic work in both The Whale and The Batman is remarkable and the efforts to bring WWI to life in All Quiet is chilling. But after picking up two awards from the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild, Elvis is the front-runner and it's well deserved. 

Production Design

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Babylon
The Fabelmans


Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Babylon

Shot in Australia, Elvis recreated Graceland, Beale Street, Vegas, Hollywood and the numerous television programs that Elvis appeared on, including the extraordinary 1968 Comeback Special, with the greatest of detail and precision. I wouldn't be at all mad at an Elvis win here, but Babylon's recreation of the Roaring '20s sits in a similar place for me.

Sound

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water 
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick


Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick

Nominated for six Academy Awards, I think Sound will be Top Gun: Maverick's lone win. Given the incredible revving of the engines and mach-level roaring zips through the sky, is there a film more deserving?

Visual Effects

Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick


Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

We can hate on Avatar: The Way of Water's script and dialogue all we want, but undoubtedly, the movie's a marvel to look at. James Cameron's latest was nominated for four awards, and similar to Top Gun: Maverick, I think it's only looking to take home one below the line prize.

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